How to read an EventEdge signal
Probability, direction, sizing — and how to turn them into a decision.
4 min read
Every morning you get a short, structured read on each market we cover. No noise, no hot takes — just the numbers and the reasoning. Here is what each part means.
What is in a signal
- Market price — what the market currently implies, as a probability.
- Our estimate — our own independent probability for the same event.
- Direction — whether we lean YES or NO relative to the market.
- Sizing — a simple guide to how much conviction the read carries.
- Rationale — the reasoning — the logic and the limitations — in plain language.
Compare your read to ours
The point is not to follow a number blindly. When our estimate matches the market, that is confirmation. When it does not, the gap is the interesting part — read the rationale, weigh it against your own view, and decide which estimate you trust.
Size with discipline
A good read is only half the job. Bet sizes should reflect conviction, not emotion. The sizing guide is a starting point — scale it to your own bankroll and risk tolerance, and never stake more than a normal losing run can afford.
We will be wrong sometimes
A market we call at 30% should lose about seven times out of ten — that is what a 30% call means. Value does not come from any single result; it comes from being a little sharper than the market, consistently, across many decisions.
One number will not make you money. A steady advantage over the market, applied with discipline over time, is the whole game.