For Polymarket participants who want a second opinion.
Independent probability estimates, daily updates, and sizing frameworks - delivered with full rationale.
Are you wondering if the market price is right?
Analysis in your inbox every day. Or check the dashboard anytime.
Aggregate data
Who EventEdge is For
• You trade on Polymarket regularly - not just during elections.
• You size positions deliberately, not impulsively.
• You want a second estimate before you commit.
• You'd rather see the methodology than trust a tip.
If you want independent probability analysis with full methodology—EventEdge is for you.
How EventEdge Works — Fast & Simple
Step 1 — Market selection: Daily, we filter for active, liquid, and predictable markets so you don’t waste time.
Step 2 — Multiple probability review: Independent probability estimates are produced and cross-checked. Events with high disagreement are excluded.
Step 3 — News and narrative scan: Recent public information is reviewed to identify developments that genuinely affect probability—not noise.
Step 4 — Structured output: You receive a clear summary: estimated ‘true’ probability, directional bias, sizing guide, rationale for the estimate, topic category, and timestamp.
Need to Know — Quick Facts
Receive around 5 - 10 estimates every day—sometimes fewer when markets are fairly priced.
Updates are published daily soon after 7pm UTC, so you’re always current, 7 days per week.
This is not financial advice. EventEdge provides information only; outcomes are not guaranteed.
Disclaimer
This service provides informational analysis only. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a solicitation to trade or wager.
EventEdge does not facilitate transactions of any kind. Past analysis does not imply future outcomes.
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