Know the real odds before you bet on Polymarket.
Independent probability estimates with full rationale — delivered to your dashboard and Telegram every day. Spot the mispriced markets. Size with conviction.
Fed cuts rates in March?
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Daily probability estimates with full rationale — here's exactly how it works.
See EventEdge in one minute
How the daily probability estimates are built — and how to read one.
1 minWhat you'll see every morning
Check the full dashboard when you want depth. Get alerts pushed to Telegram when you want speed. One probability estimate per event. One rationale. No noise.
The full picture, when you want depth
Every live market, ranked by conviction, with the reasoning behind each call.
Pushed to you, when you want speed
Instant alerts the moment a new signal is published — model probability, edge and sizing, with the reasoning attached.
Up 103% over the last six months.
This is the total return our signals have produced over the last six months. One line, plain and simple.
Cumulative return across published signals over the last six months. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
See the calls for yourself
Positions taken on Polymarket after acting on EventEdge signals — the market, the entry, and where it ended up.
EventEdge publishes probability estimates only. Trades are placed by you, on Polymarket. Individual results vary.
How EventEdge works
Market selection
Daily, we filter for active, liquid, and predictable markets so you don’t waste time.
Multiple probability review
Independent estimates are produced and cross-checked. Events with high disagreement are excluded.
News & narrative scan
Recent public information is reviewed for developments that genuinely move probability — not noise.
Structured output
You receive the estimated true probability, directional bias, sizing guide, rationale, category and timestamp.
Who EventEdge is for
Less time, sharper decisions
I used to spend an hour reading threads and news. Now I check the dashboard in five minutes and I'm done.
I don't need EventEdge to tell me what to do. I need it to show me what I might be missing. That's exactly what it does.
Other services give you a number. EventEdge shows you why. I've never seen anyone publish their reasoning this clearly.
One good call pays for the year.
Select the format that fits how you follow events. Cancel anytime — full dashboard access from day one.
- Live dashboard access
- Proprietary market models
- Full rationale on every call
- Cancel or upgrade anytime
- Everything in Dashboard
- Real-time Telegram alerts
- Automated delivery, zero delay
Cancel anytime. No lock-in. No emails, no calls, no friction.
Good to know
Can I cancel anytime?
Yes. Cancel from your dashboard in two clicks. No emails, no calls, no friction.
What platforms do you support?
EventEdge works on any device — desktop, tablet, or mobile — and integrates with Telegram for instant alerts.
Can your estimates be wrong?
Of course. A call at 30% should miss most of the time — that’s how probability works. What matters is the return across many calls, not any single one.
Is this financial advice?
No. We provide analysis and research to help you think through events — informational only, never advice or guarantees.
Prediction markets, explained
What are Prediction Markets?
A plain-English primer on how markets price real-world events — and why the crowd is often right.
Read guide →A Guide to Polymarket
How Polymarket works, how liquidity moves, and where mispricings tend to hide.
Read guide →How to read a signal
How to read the probability, the direction, and the sizing — and turn it into a decision.
Read guide →Stop guessing the odds. Start seeing them.
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