A plain guide to Polymarket
What it is, how the markets work, and where mispricings tend to hide.
6 min read
Polymarket is a prediction-market platform where you trade shares in the outcome of real-world events. Today it is the largest and most liquid venue of its kind, covering politics, economics, sports, crypto and culture.
How a market works
Every market has outcomes — usually YES and NO. A YES share pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not. Prices sit between 0 and 1, so a YES share at 0.40 costs 40¢ and implies a 40% chance. Buy YES when you think the real odds are higher; buy NO when you think they are lower.
Liquidity and why it matters
Liquidity is how much you can trade without moving the price. Deep markets — big elections, major events — barely budge. Thin markets can swing on a single order. Thin markets are riskier to enter and exit, but they are also where prices stray furthest from fair value.
How markets resolve
When the event settles, the market resolves to YES or NO against a stated source, and winning shares pay out $1 each. Always read the resolution criteria before you trade — the exact wording decides what actually counts as a win.
Read the fine print first. Most avoidable losses come from misreading exactly what a market resolves on.
Common mistakes
- Chasing headlines — buying after the news has already moved the price.
- Ignoring liquidity — taking a size you cannot exit without a big haircut.
- Skipping the rules — trading a market you have not read the resolution terms for.
- Over-betting — sizing one position so large that a normal loss really hurts.
Trading with a second opinion
None of this requires you to become a full-time analyst. EventEdge does the daily reading and hands you an independent probability and rationale for each market — so you can move faster and size with more confidence.